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Investment Timing Software Results

Online Analyzer, 40 Day Moving Average

This table shows results from using the Online Analyzer market timing program with different chart parameter settings, which are:

Moving average = 40 days
Inner band setting = 25
Outer band setting = 30

The tighter chart settings result in more trades with a greater overall return.

Results
Decision Keys

Year	Date	Buy	Sell	Points Gain or Loss	% Gain or Loss	Dollar Amount	Annual % Growth
Starting $						10,000
2002	2/6	1083
	3/12		1165	82	7.5%	10,750
	5/6	1052
	6/21		989	-63	-5.9%	10,115
	7/23	797
	8/22		962	165	20.7%	12,209
	9/27	827
	10/25		897	70	8.4%	13,235	32.3%
2003	2/13	817
	3/21		895	78	9.5%	14,492
	4/9	865
	6/10		984	119	13.7%	16,486
	8/5	965
	9/4		1027	62	6.4%	17,545
	9/26	966					32.5%
2004	1/8		1126	130	16.6%	20,451
	3/22	1095
	6/8		1142	47	4.2%	21,329
	7/26	1084
	11/5		1166	82	7.5%	22,942	30.7%
2005	1/24	1163
	7/28		1243	80	6.8%	24,520
	10/18	1178
	11/28		1257	79	6.7%	26,165	14.0%
2006	5/24	1258					0.0%
2007	6/4		1539	281	22.3%	32,009
	6/7	1490
	7/19		1553	63	4.2%	33,362
	8/3	1450
	9/26		1525	75	5.1%	35,088
	11/15	1451
	12/10		1515	64	4.4%	36,636	40.0%
2008	1/21	1335
	2/1		1395	60	4.4%	38,282
	3/10	1273
	5/5		1407	134	10.5%	42,312
	7/7	1252
	8/11		1305	53	4.2%	44,103
	11/21	800
	12/16		913	913	14.1%	50,333	37.3%
2009	1/20	805
	2/6		868	63	7.8%	54,272
	3/2	700
	3/26		832	132	18.8%	64,506
	7/8	882
	8/4		1005	126	14.2%	73,502
	10/2	1025
	10/22		1092	67	6.5%	78,306
	10/30	1035
	11/18		1109	74	7.1%	83,905	66.7%
2010	2/5	1066
	4/14		1210	144	13.5%	95,239
	5/26	1067
	8/4		1127	60	5.6%	100,595
	8/31	1049
	9/27		1142	98	9.3%	109,513	30.5%
2011	3/18	1279
	4/7		1333	54	4.2%	114,137
	6/10	1270
	7/7		1353	83	6.5%	121,596
	8/8	1119
	9/19		1204	85	7.5%	130,832
	9/26	1162
	10/24		1285	123	10.5%	144,681
	11/25	1158
	12/9		1255	97	8.3%	156,800	43.1%

Year	Date	Buy	Sell	Dollar Amount	MACD Status	Other Decision Key
Starting $				10,000
2002	2/6	1083			Converge	Dark green
	3/12		1165	10,750	Flat	Dark red
	5/6	1052			Converge	Dark green
	6/21		989	10,115		Stopped out, steep trend, wait
	7/23	797				Deep into buy band
	8/22		962	12,209	Flat	Dark red
	9/27	827			Flat	Dark green
	10/25		897	13,235	Flat	Dark red, 7 days
2003	2/13	817			Flat	Dark green
	3/21		895	14,492		Deep into dell band
	4/9	865				Trend up, buy on dip
	6/10		984	16,486	Flat	Dark red
	8/5	965				Light green buy band
	9/4		1027	17,545		Sell band. Level = last rallies
	9/26	966				Buy band. Level = last rallies
2004	1/8		1126	20,451	Flat	Dark red
	3/22	1095			Converge	Dark green
	6/8		1142	21,329		Sell band. Level = last rallies
	7/26	1084			Flat	Light green
	11/5		1166	22,942		Deep into sell band, 6 days
2005	1/24	1163			Flat	Light green
	7/28		1243	24,520	Flat	Orange sell band, take profit
	10/18	1178			Converge	Green
	11/28		1257	26,165	Flat	Price exit buy, take profit
2006	5/24	1258				Buy band
2007	6/4		1539	32,009		Orange, take profit
	6/7	1490				Green, trend = up
	7/19		1553	33,362		Trend rounding, take profit
	8/3	1450			Flat	Dark green
	9/26		1525	35,088	Converge	Dark red
	11/15	1451			Flat	Dark green
	12/10		1515	36,636		Deep red, exceed last rallies
2008	1/21	1335				Deep into buy band
	2/1		1395	38,282		Orange, trend down, take profit
	3/10	1273				Deep into green = last rallies
	5/5		1407	42,312	Flat	Dark red
	7/7	1252			Converge	Deep into buy band
	8/11		1305	44,103		Sell = last rallies, steep trend, wait
	11/21	800				Trend = eased, deep dark green
	12/16		913	50,333	Converge	Dark red, take profit
2009	1/20	805				Buy band, level = last rally
	2/6		868	54,272		Orange, take profit
	3/2	700			Flat	Deep into dark green
	3/26		832	64,506		Exceeds last 3 rallies, take profit
	7/8	882				Deep into buy band
	8/4		1005	73,502	Flat
	10/2	1025				Buy on dip
	10/22		1092	78,306	Flat
	10/30	1035				Buy band level = last rallies
	11/18		1109	83,905		Sell band level = last rallies
2010	2/5	1066			Converge	Dark green, level = last rallies
	4/14		1210	95,239	Flat	Dark red, take profit
	5/26	1067				Deep into buy band, 6 days
	8/4		1127	100,595	Flat	Dark red, take profit
	8/31	1049			Converge	Dark green
	9/27		1142	109,513	Converge	Dark red
2011	3/18	1279				Price leaves dark green
	4/7		1333	114,137	Flat
	6/10	1270			Converge
	7/7		1353	121,596	Flat
	8/8	1119				Price deep into dark green
	9/19		1204	130,832		Price leaves sell bands
	9/26	1162				Price leaves buy bands
	10/24		1285	144,681		Level=last rally, Take profit
	11/25	1158				Level=last rally
	12/9		1255	156,800	Converge	Take Profit

To see all data in .pdf format click here

Using the 40 day moving average setting with the Online Analyzer market timing program we find the following:

There were 33 switch cycles, one buy and one sell.
There was one losing trade when we were stopped out at -5.9 percent below our purchase.
Total value at the end of the study was $156,800 which is 15.68 times the money invested, and represents a 1,468% gain in ten years.
This is an excellent return.

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